I started this article last year, but my laptop with all the data died, and wasn't backed up, so it's very out of date, but still relevant.
Intro
As an aspiring professional in trail running, I think one of the hardest things is knowing what you are worth, and how to get started with sponsorships. In this article I look at the correlation between index scores and social media following, a rough estimate to an athletes value, and I'll also share my experience so far in trying to land paying sponsors (including figures that I have received so far) and experience of agency vs "organic" deals.
Index Vs Following
I'd like to think that contracts from brands are awarded to the best athletes, based on their performances. I assumed that how well those athletes can market themselves via media platforms would be the second determinant of securing contracts. Therefore I started looking into whether there was a correlation between the top rated runners in trail running and the number of followers they had on social media. I decided to use the ITRA index over the UTMB index as I feel it is less biased (given it doesn't have it's own race series that it scores itself). I decided to use Instagram as the platform for gauging the athletes "following" as it is the most commonly used one for advertising athletes and brands. I took the top 400 ITRA index's for male athletes at the end of 2023, then looked them up individually on Instagram, which was a time consuming exercise. As such I've only done it for male athletes at this point (I also have no inside knowledge of what female athletes are getting paid). As I mentioned I lost the data but fortunately took a photo on my phone of the graph as a trend started to appear. You might notice that Killian is not on the graph, and that is simply because his following is so large at 1.7 Million that all the other data points were too squashed together for a useful visual representation.
There was a positive correlation between a high index score and and higher following, albeit a weak one. Athletes with a following over 50,000 (which in the sport of trail running is a lot) have largely all had good results at one or two race series...UTMB (including Western States) and the Golden Trail Series. They also have a strong "Instagram game" (i.e they post regularly with quality content). There were exceptions on the far right of the graph with athletes around the 940 index point, only having around 1,000 followers on Instagram. These were predominantly African athletes at the top of the Golden Trail Series, but who had posted less content.
There were exceptions in the other direction, of a high following (over 50K) but a relatively lower index (around 870) where their "Instagram game" has elevated their following higher than the average. They are still very good athletes, so not to be labeled as influencers.
How much are followers worth?
Although I don't like the idea that following can increase an athletes value more than their performance, I next looked at how much followers are "worth". Trailrunner magazine recently released an article titled "Where is the line between athlete and influencer". In the article they state that influencing accounts for as much as $29,000,000,000 per year with a 17% rate of growth, with the USA accounting for 76% of this "influencer spending". Grayson Murphy the US Mountain and Trail runner is quoted as considering switching to influencing after discovering a discrepancy in pay between athlete and "content creators" (assuming this is with her Sponsor Saucony).
These figures are taken from Impact.com on what influencers are earning.
They define a "Micro influencer" as someone with 15-75,000 followers on Instagram and can charge $2-8,000 for a sponsored post!
For a "Macro Influencer" (250,000-1 Million followers) this can be negotiated $20-50,000 per sponsored post. I'm guessing a "standard" influencer fills in the gap between 75,000 and 250,000.
Tabulated this means that as the number of followers increases, the value per post per follower decreases. I assume that this is likely due to a reduced "engagement" and suitability of those followers as their numbers increase.
These figures seem high, but then I applied it to my race invite to TransLantau in 2023. If I take the $0.13 value and multiplied it by my following (1,766 at the time) I get $235.47 for doing a post.
The organizers paid for my flight, and provided a race hotel for 4 nights in exchange for doing a total of 5 posts. This equated to a saving/value of approximately $1,144.00 to me, which per post is $229! So not far off at all!
Even if you are a top runner, brands want to see evidence that you can sell their products. Ultimately athlete salaries and bonuses are coming out of marketing budgets. Although I had a terrible season in 2024 in terms of results, I did make an effort to post regularly on Instagram, and my following still increased by over 500. I therefore consider it a necessary evil. The app itself is addictive, and it takes a fair amount of time and effort to make engaging content, in a highly saturated/competitive environment.
How much are you worth?
Assuming you are looking to gain a full time brand partner/sponsor then I don't think you'll likely get the same value per post as those figures above. Those figures seem more relevant to one off deals/campaigns, rather than annual contracts.
Toms Algorithm for Trail Totty (TATT):
Please note this is a very rough estimate that only applies to a relatively narrow range of athletes. Like other emerging sports, or areas where there is not a defined market rate, you are only worth what some one else/a brand is willing to pay.
 ((Number of instagram followers/10) X (Index X 2)) / Age
For me at end of 2023: ((1766/10) x (878x2))/32 = €9,690.00
For me at end of 2024: ((2295/10) x (877x2))/33 =€12,198.00
I am justifying the above calculations off of offers that I have received in the last year or so. My first offer came from VIBRAM of €10,000 per year, as a retainer for a 2-3 year deal. They weren't concerned with social media requirements saying that performance was the key consideration.
I also had an offer from Kiprun of £12,000 + £3,000 expenses through Santara group agency (subject to 20% commission/fee), and an offer of €8,000+€2,000 directly from Altra.
I have heard David Roche on a podcast define the three major levels of athlete contracts (He has inside knowledge from athletes he coaches, and offers he's received) as:
Level 1: $0-10,000. Essentially retainers. Athletes rely heavily on other sources of income, and bonuses to support themselves. May define themselves as professional to sooth their ego's. This is the level that most elite athletes are at, and brands can be quite "ruthless" with them. I have friends who have been in the sport far longer than me, at a similar performance level, who had contracts towards the bottom end of this level, and often weren't paid on time!
If I had to attribute an index score, for male athletes it would be around 860-880.
Level 2: $30,000 . Someone getting consistent and good results. Capable of winning a golden ticket. May be able to train full time, support themselves but may have a side hustle like coaching.
If I had to attribute an index score, it would be for male athletes of around 880-900.
Level 3: $150,000
Comments